Vermont Population Projections 2010–2030

About This Data

These projections were prepared in 2013 by Ken Jones, Ph.D., Economic Research Analyst at the Vermont Agency of Commerce and Community Development, with assistance from Lilly Schwarz. They cover Vermont's 14 counties and 255 towns, projecting population from the 2010 Census baseline to 2020 and 2030.

Projections are based on an age-cohort model using five-year age groupings. The key demographic factors applied are: mortality rates, birth rates, and migration rates drawn from 1990–2010 historical data. It is important to note that when this site was made in 2026 that the porjections ended up being inaccurate, which is to be expected, due to events like the COVID Pandemic, restrictions on imigation, and economic factors. This site it meant to serve as an interactive archival site for this report.

Two Scenarios

Scenario A applies migration rates from the 1990s — a period of higher in-migration to Vermont. This scenario generally projects higher population growth or slower decline.

Scenario B applies migration rates from the 2000s — a decade that saw lower in-migration and greater out-migration. This scenario generally projects lower growth or greater population loss.

Methodology

Mortality: Rates for cohorts over 50 continue to decline; projections assume this trend continues. For younger cohorts, the rate is leveling off.

Births: County-specific birth rates are used because Vermont counties show significant variation. Age-specific rates come from Vermont Department of Health Vital Statistics.

Normalization: County and town projections are normalized to match state-level projections to ensure consistency.

Town Projection Formula

2020: 2010 population + (50% of town change 2000–2010) + (25% of town change 1990–2000) + (25% of county change 2010–2020)

2030: 2020 population + (35% of town change 2000–2010) + (15% of town change 1990–2000) + (50% of county change 2020–2030)

Caveats

• Projections assume past conditions continue; actual results may differ due to unforeseen changes.
• Based on Census populations, not actual resident counts (e.g., second-home owners, "snowbirds").
• Small population sizes are susceptible to fluctuations; margin of error increases for smaller towns.

Review Committee

• Glenn Bailey — Vermont Agency of Education
• Mathew Barewicz — Vermont Department of Labor
• Sarah Lindberg — Vermont Department of Financial Regulation
• Michael Moser — UVM Center for Rural Studies
• Michael Nyland-Funke — Vermont Department of Health